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In tonight's prediction, I am using NerdWallet's numbers from today. This
is otherwise very similar to yesterday's blog.
Assuming there is no correlation between the states, NerdWallet gives the following numbers. In other words, I am assuming that Obama getting Ohio does not affect his chances of getting Florida, and vice-versa.
I have looked at how Romney's victory or loss in these three states affects the election results based on Nerd Wallet's numbers:
No correlation between states
Assuming there is no correlation between the states, NerdWallet gives the following numbers. In other words, I am assuming that Obama getting Ohio does not affect his chances of getting Florida, and vice-versa.
Overall Romney 32.4% Tie 1.2% Obama 66.4%
The big three: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio
I have looked at how Romney's victory or loss in these three states affects the election results based on Nerd Wallet's numbers:
Obama gets OH Romney 20.88% Tie 0.73% Obama 78.38% Romney gets OH Romney 50.52% Tie 1.98% Obama 47.50% Obama gets FL Romney 6.23% Tie 0.74% Obama 93.04% Romney gets FL Romney 46.91% Tie 1.46% Obama 51.63%As before, there are few paths to victory for Romney if Obama gets Florida. Romney's chances decrease by over 10% if Obama gets either Ohio or Virginia.
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